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9月玉米大幅跳水,10月或将继续探底!

来源: 赤峰和美嘉科技有限公司  点击:14次 发布时间:2016-10-10

        9月份,国内玉米市场受利空因素云集。各地新季玉米陆续上市,而需求端疲弱态势不改;国储玉米拍卖依旧常态进行,成交率维持在较低水平;尽管东北产区国储政策提前公布,但收储价格大幅下调。市场心态的严重偏空,使得产销区玉米价格大幅下跌。

  市场监测显示,月初9月1日3等黄玉米均价为2252.00元/吨,月末9月30日均价为2083.33元/吨,月度下滑168.67元/吨,下跌幅为7.49%。

  从当前市场来看,国储库存依旧巨大,整体成交清淡;新粮已经纷纷上市,贸易商看空心理加重,出库积极性较高。而最为承接方下游需求并没有明显改善,市场供给压力凸显。由于国家临时存储玉米收购政策11月1日开始实施,估计10月份的玉米价格或将继续探底。

  东北地区玉米价格持续走软

  近期东北产区继续维持低迷行情,市场收购主体稀少,贸易商出货意愿积极,下游企业承接力明显不足。尽管国家临储收购政策已经出台,但由于担忧价格继续下行,市场多持观望心理。当前东北新粮主要来自辽宁,吉林及黑龙江两省新季玉米大量收割将在国庆之后进行。

  截止9月底,吉林四平地区14%水分一等陈玉米贸易商出库价格为2100-2140元/吨,周比下降50元/吨;辽宁沈阳地区一等陈玉米贸易商出库价格为2100-2120元/吨,黑龙江双鸭山14.5%水分三等新玉米贸易商出库价格为1920-1940元/吨,均周比下降80元/吨。

  华北地区玉米价格大幅下行

  9月下旬以来,华北产区市场新粮逐渐增多,加之今年临储价格调整幅度较大,市场悲观心态加剧,企业及贸易商对后市看空,深加工企业连续下调厂门收购价格,导致玉米价格大幅下行。

  截止9月底,山东潍坊地区深加工企业14%水分二等新玉米收购价格为1800-1900元/吨,周比下降180-220元/吨;河北秦皇岛地区深加工企业收购价格为1890-1910元/吨,周比下降60元/吨;河南信阳地区15%水分二等新玉米饲料企业收购价格为1820-1840元/吨,周比下降100元/吨。当前,华北产区大多企业新陈玉米收购价格一致。

  南北港口玉米价格双双走弱

  近期受华北地区价格大幅下挫及东北新粮价格偏低影响,目前北方港口收购主体极少,多数企业维持观望。南港购销依旧疲弱,一方面受华北低价玉米冲击影响,另一方面下游企业采购意愿不佳。

  截止9月底,鲅鱼圈港15%水分以内,容重700g/L以上,生霉率2%以内的辽宁新玉米收购价2010-2030元/吨,理论平仓价2060-2100元/吨,均周比下降20元/吨;锦州港口辽宁新玉米收购价2030元/吨,理论平仓价2080-2100元/吨,周比基本持平。广东深圳港口14.5%水分辽吉优质玉米成交价格为2230-2250元/吨,周比下降20-30元/吨,质量偏差的玉米价格为2100-2150元/吨,比上周下降20-50元/吨。

  目前北方港口玉米到广东港口成本价为2160-2200元/吨,贸易利润50-70元/吨。市场预计,当前北方港口优质玉米价格已经跌至临储收购价格附近,再跌幅度不大;而南方港口玉米价格仍有下降空间,估计南北港口玉米贸易利润将会逐步缩小。玉米拍卖同比断崖式下滑

  9月份,国家共举行国家临时存储玉米竞价销售交易会三次。计划销售国家临时存储玉米1558.34万吨,实际成交20.83万吨吨,平均成交率为1.34%,较8月份更加低迷。

  据统计,今年临储玉米拍卖至今累计总成交量583万吨,比上年同期下降80%。具体来看,今年东北地区临储玉米累计成交566.9万吨,进口玉米累计成交14.08万吨,跨省移库玉米累计成交仅1.88万吨。经过近两年的拍卖,2012年的3083万吨临储玉米已拍卖成交2137万吨,2013年的6919万吨玉米已成交915万吨。

  根据测算,截至目前我国临储玉米结余量仍在1.5亿吨的高位水平。

  利空笼罩玉米仍有下跌空间

  从政策上看,新季玉米收储政策利空市场。一是收储价格大幅下调,三省一价政策调整后,收储价格较去年平均降幅在10%左右;二是玉米收储的质量标准提高,其中不完善粒中生霉含量超过2%的要求按照规定用途使用。价格控制更严格,相当于变相降价收购。三是收购主体中仅新增中航工业集团,在陈玉米社会总库存高企的情况下,今年国储敞开收购的库容条件或难以满足,这样敞开收购的概率大幅下降。

  从供给上看,玉米市场供给压力剧增。相关机构发布的报告,将2015/16年度中国玉米产量预测值下调至2.29亿吨,较早先预测值调低300万吨。不过调低后的玉米产量仍然创下历史最高纪录,较上年产量增长6.2%。另国家交易中心今年拍卖情况显示,本年度至今累计拍卖成交玉米量仅为583万吨,远低于市场预期的2000-3000万吨规模,去库存九牛一毛。

  从需求上看,玉米深加工及饲料消费持续低迷。统计数据显示,2015年我国生猪存栏连续9个月下降,比前4年平均水平低14%,能繁母猪连续22个月下降,比前4年平均水平低19.4%。尽管近来生猪存栏环比有所增加,但考虑到小猪到成猪的生长周期较长,对饲料消费的拉动性影响短期内仍难以显现。


  深加工方面,6月份以来玉米加工行业亏损情况不断扩大,今年除玉米油有上涨外,其他三种副产品跌幅较大,其中玉米皮和玉米粕跌幅达到50%。以山东地区为例,自7月份以来当地的玉米淀粉价格从6月份的2900元/吨大幅回落到2500-2600元/吨,企业淀粉加工亏损在350-400元/吨。据了解,从8月份以来多数淀粉企业加工率大幅下滑,目前大多处于停产或停产一半的状态。


  从进口来看,进口玉米及低价替代品大量增加。海关数据显示,2015年8月份我国进口玉米60.76万吨,环比下降45.14%,同比增长354.74%。2014/15年度至今我国累计进口玉米535万吨,同比增长64%。

  8月份我国进口高粱54.89万吨,2014/2015年度至今累计进口高粱达909万吨,同比增长175%。8月份进口DDGS为79.35万吨,2014/2015年度以来累计进口DDGS为468万吨。8月份进口大麦77.82万吨,2014/2015年度至今累计进口大麦856万吨,同比增长107%。



The English version

In September, the domestic market by negative factors gathered corn. Around the corn in the new season, and the weakness in demand side do not change; State reserve auction are still the norm for corn, conversion rates stay low; Although the northeast region of reserve policy announced in advance, but purchase prices sharply lower. Serious bearish market mentality, making ChanXiao District corn prices fell sharply.

Market monitoring shows that at the beginning of September 1, 3 yellow corn such as average price of 2252.00 yuan/ton, in late September 30 average price of 2083.33 yuan/ton, monthly decline in 168.67 yuan/ton, down 7.49%.

From the perspective of the current market, the store inventory is still huge, whole light volume; New food has been listed in succession, traders bearish psychology is aggravating, outbound enthusiasm is higher. Most accept party did not significantly improve the downstream demand, market supply pressure. Because of the temporary storage of corn by the state policy began on November 1, estimate the price of corn in October or will continue to fall.

Corn prices continued weakness in northeast China

Recent downturn to maintain market of northeast region, market purchase subject scarce, traders shipment will actively, the downstream enterprises to undertake force obviously inadequate. Although the national in the store to buy policy has been issued, but due to concerns about prices continue downward, the market more than wait. The current northeast new food mainly comes from liaoning, jilin and heilongjiang provinces on the new season a lot of harvest corn will take place after the National Day.

Jilin siping area by the end of September, 14% moisture wait Chen corn traders outbound price for 2100-2140 yuan/ton, weeks than drop 50 yuan/ton; Liaoning shenyang area first-class Chen corn traders outbound price for 2100-2120 yuan/ton, heilongjiang shuangyashan 14.5% moisture third-class new corn traders outbound price for 1920-1940 yuan/ton, all week than fell 80 yuan/ton.

Corn prices in north China sharply downward

Since late September, the north China region market new grain increase gradually, and because the price of this year over the storage adjustment range is larger, the market pessimism, enterprises and traders to afternoon bearish, deep processing enterprise continuous price cut gate, corn prices sharply downward.

By the end of September, shandong weifang area 14% moisture second-class new corn deep processing enterprises purchase price is 1800-1900 yuan/ton, weeks than the decline in 180-220 yuan/ton; Hebei qinhuangdao area deep processing enterprise purchase price is 1890-1910 yuan/ton, weeks than dropped 60 yuan/ton; Henan xinyang area 15% moisture second-class new corn feed enterprise purchase price is 1820-1840 yuan/ton, weeks than fell 100 yuan/ton. At present, most of north China region enterprises new Chen corn prices.

North and south port corn prices have been weakening

Recent prices have fallen sharply in north China and northeast new grain price is low, the northern port acquisition subject few, most companies keep watching. Nangang procurement is still weak, on the one hand, influenced by cheap corn shocks of north China, on the other hand the downstream enterprise procurement will not beautiful.

Port by the end of September, BaYuJuan within 15% moisture content, unit weight of 700 g/L above, mildew rate less than 2% of liaoning new corn price 2010-2030 yuan/ton, the theory of unwinding price 2060-2100 yuan/ton, all week than drop 20 yuan/ton; Jinzhou port in liaoning new corn price 2030 yuan/ton, the theory of unwinding price 2080-2100 yuan/ton, weeks than flat. Port, shenzhen city, guangdong province 14.5% water alternating high quality corn clinch a deal the price is 2230-2250 yuan/ton, weeks than drop 20-30 yuan/ton, quality deviation of corn prices for 2100-2150 yuan/ton, 20 to 50 yuan/ton lower than last week.

At present the northern port of corn to guangdong port cost price is 2160-2200 yuan/ton, trade profit 50-70 yuan/ton. Market is expected, the current in the northern port high-quality corn prices have dropped to store near the purchase price, again fall modestly; The southern port of corn prices are still falling space, estimates the corn trade port will gradually reduce profits. Decline in corn auction bluff compared to the same type

In September, the state has held national temporary storage corn auction fair three times. Plan sales countries temporary storage 15.5834 million tons of corn, the actual clinch a deal of 208300 tons, the average conversion rates at 1.34%, is even lower in August.

This year, according to statistics, in the store auction has the accumulative total volume of 5.83 million tons of corn, fell by 80% year-on-year. Specific view, clinch a deal in the northeast corn storage of the year, 5.669 million tons of corn accumulative total 140800 tons, move across the province library corn clinch a deal the only 18800 tons. After nearly two years of auction, 2012 tonnes in 30.83 million in the store has sold at auction 21.37 million tons of corn, 2013, 69.19 million tons of corn has a deal of 9.15 million tons.

According to the calculation, so far our country store corn surplus quantity is still in the 150 million tons of high level.

A bearish corn still has to fall

From a policy point of view, the new season corn purchase policy bearish market. One is for purchasing prices slashed, three provinces after adjustment of price policy from last year the average purchase price is around 10%; Second, corn purchase quality standard, the imperfect grain mildew in the USES of the content is more than 2% of the requirements in accordance with the relevant provisions. Price control more strictly, akin to reduce the price. Three is to buy new China aviation industry group, only in the body of the Chen corn under the condition of high social total inventory, this year the store open purchase storage conditions, or difficult to meet, so open acquisition probability has fallen dramatically.

Look from the supply, corn market supply pressure surge. Agencies report that will be 2015/16 Chinese maize yield forecast to 229 million tons, the earlier forecast of 3 million tons. But lower after maize yield is still to a record high, output grew by 6.2% on the previous year. Other countries trading center auction this year, according to the year to date auction corn quantity is 5.83 million tons, only is far lower than the market expected 2000-30 million tons scale, to stock a drop in the bucket.

From the point of view of demand, corn processing and feed consumption remains weak. Statistics show that in 2015 China's live pig amount of nine consecutive months of decline, 14% lower than in the past 4 years average, to numerous sows falling for 22 months, average 19.4% lower than the previous four years. Despite recent pig amount of monthly increase, but considering the pig to pig growth cycle is long, to feed consumption of drawing was affected in the short term is difficult to show.


Deep processing, since June losses growing corn processing industry, this year in addition to the corn oil is rising, the other three heavy falls in by-products, including corn and corn meal or 50%. In shandong area, for example, since July local corn starch from June 2900 yuan/ton price dropped sharply to 2500-2600 yuan/ton, starch processing losses in 350-400 yuan/ton. It is understood that since August, most of the starch in the decline of the processing enterprises, are currently in production or shut down half of the state.


From the point of import, import corn and cheaper alternatives. Customs data show that in August 2015, China imported 607600 tons of corn, fell by 45.14%, up 354.74% from a year earlier. 2014/15 has accumulated in China imported 5.35 million tons of corn, up 64% from a year earlier.

China imported 548900 tons of sorghum in August, 2014/2015 have imported 9.09 million tons of sorghum, up 175% from a year earlier. Imported DDGS in August of 793500 tons, imported DDGS since the 2014/2015 of 4.68 million tons. Imported 778200 tons of barley in August, 2014/2015 have imported 8.56 million tons of barley, up 107% from a year earlier.

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