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9月开始，玉米、豆粕这两种主要的大宗原料价格走势可谓“冰火两重天”。玉米价格震荡走低，豆粕则维持偏强运行，而这种走势在中秋节后尤为明显。
一、玉米暴跌为哪般？
“一场秋雨一场寒”，用在现阶段的玉米市场再合适不过。自9月开始，山东、河南、河北等地玉米价格率先进入下行通道，尽管节前销区、港口局地因优质粮源阶段性供应趋紧，而出现反弹现象，但仍抵挡不住华北产区玉米价格集中下滑，带来的全国性利空打压。行情宝数据显示：截至9月18日，全国玉米均价约为1885元/吨，较月初下滑60元/吨。领跌全国的华北黄淮当地玉米均价跌幅更是突破100元/吨。
导致该地玉米暴跌的主要原因有二：1、中秋期间，部分地区新玉米集中上市，企业采购谨慎，打压整个市场。2、政策粮投放热情不减，临储玉米拍卖玉米执行到10月，且单周投放增加总量至1000万吨。
二、豆粕涨价为哪般？
与玉米不同的是，国内豆粕价格自9月初便开启上涨模式。中秋节前因9月美国农业部报告上调美豆产量，导致国内豆粕价格跟随美豆期价出现小幅短暂回调，但节后依旧重拾涨势。行情宝数据显示，截至9月18日，全国主要地区油厂豆粕主流成交均价约为3230元/吨，较月初上涨150元/吨。
引发上涨的原因可分为国外与国内两方面：1、国外：一个是美豆旧作出口需求强劲带动，另一个则是美豆产区天气降雨对后期生长担忧，两者共同作用下，抵消了报告带来的利空影响，并带动期价再度反弹。2、国内：近期进口大豆到港量下滑，供应现阶段性紧张态势，这是其一；其二，从目前油厂手中的未执行合同数量来看，并不存在销售压力，因此挺价意愿较强。
三、其他饲料原料涨跌情况
乍一看，除豆粕涨价，棉粕稳定以外，其他饲料原料均出现不同程度的下滑趋势。麸皮价格较月初小幅走低，主要由于新玉米上市逐步增多以及面粉厂开工率提高给麸皮市场行情造成拖累。而DDGS跌势较上月明显放缓，一方面因库存偏低，另一方面则是商务部更新DDGS双反调查动态，导致弱势行情略有缩窄。
棉粕一直不温不火，菜粕价格并未跟随豆粕上涨脚步，价格小幅下跌；当然，这与近期恶劣天气影响水产养殖脱不开干系。另一个“靠天吃饭”的原料鱼粉，同样受到天气影响，价格自8月开始急速下跌，旺季不旺的格局持续至今。
四、未来原料价格是涨是跌？
回过头来，我们继续分析最为重要的两种大宗原料--豆粕、玉米。
对于玉米而言，不论是机构、专家，乃至收粮的商贩、卖粮的农户，想必都不看好后市。目前华北黄淮等地新玉米陆续上市，东北玉米集中上市要到11月左右，临储玉米拍卖也将持续到10月底，也就是东北玉米上市前。因此，行情宝认为在这种供应量持续增多的情况下，全国各地玉米价格将步入下行通道。
相比之下，豆粕价格未来一段时间将持续向好。利多市场的因素并非只集中在美豆方面，这回国内供需面对豆粕价格起到了有利支撑作用。大豆进口量减少、油厂豆粕库存偏低、未执行合同量增多，均导致豆粕价格短期内将继续走高。不过，油厂前期销售9-10月基差过多，透支10月市场需求，对于豆粕长远走势的预测：跛脚穿花鞋，我们边走边瞧！
The English version
September, corn, soybean meal, the two major commodities prices have "should". Corn prices shock slump, soybean meal will remain strong, and this kind of situation is especially obvious after the Mid-Autumn festival.
A, corn tumbled for our favorite stylemakers?
"A rain a cold", with good market in the present stage of corn. Since September, shandong, henan, hebei, corn prices took the lead into the downlink channel, although the first XiaoQu, port local because of the high quality stocks staged a tighter, and rebound phenomenon, but still not able to withstand the corn prices decline concentration of north China region, the national bearish. Market data shows: treasure as of September 18, the national average price of corn is about 1885 yuan/ton, the decline in early 60 yuan/ton. Led by the country's north huanghuai local corn average price decline is above 100 yuan/ton.
Result in the area of corn tumbled there are two main reasons: 1, during the Mid-Autumn festival, in parts of new corn concentration, enterprise procurement cautious, on the whole market. 2, policy of grain on the enthusiasm, storage in the corn execution auction to October, and weekly delivery increased amount to 10 million tons.
Second, the soybean meal price rises for our favorite stylemakers?
Unlike corn, domestic soybean meal prices since the beginning of September and opened up mode. Before the Mid-Autumn festival in September for the United States department of agriculture report raised the bean production, domestic soybean meal prices follow the bean futures appear slightly short callback, but after still return to rally. Market, according to data from the treasure as of September 18th, the main oil region soybean meal mainstream clinch a deal the average price is about 3230 yuan/ton, the early rise 150 yuan/ton.
Reason causing the rise could be divided into two aspects: foreign and domestic, abroad: one is the beautiful bean represented strong export demand driven, the other is American beans areas weather rain for later growth concerns, both, offset the report bring negative influence, and boost futures rebound again. 2, domestic: a recent decline in imports of soybeans to port, now the periodic tensions of supply, this is the first; Secondly, from the hand of the oil at present not to execute the contract number, there is no sales pressure, so pretty price will stronger.
Three, other feed ingredients or downward
At first glance, in addition to soybean meal price rises, stable cotton pulp, other feed ingredients are varying degrees of decline. Early bran price is slightly lower, mainly due to the new corn market gradually increased, and flour factory starts to increase bran market a drag. And DDGS decline is clearly slowed last month, on the one hand, because of low inventory, on the other hand is the ministry of commerce to update the DDGS double inverse dynamic investigation, lead to a weak market slightly narrow.
Cotton pulp has been tepid, wheat prices did not follow the pace of rising soybean meal, prices slightly down; This, of course, and the recent bad weather are aquaculture. The raw material of another "weather" fish meal, also affected by the weather, prices fell sharply since the beginning of August, the pattern of the slack season continues today.
Four, the raw material price is up is down?
Looking back, we continue to analyze two of the most important commodities, soybean meal, corn.
For corn, whether institutions, experts, and even accept food vendors, sell corn farmers, presumably are bullish. Places such as north huanghuai new corn are listed at present, the northeast corn concentration listed until November or so, in the corn storage auction will last until the end of October, is the northeast corn listed before. Market, therefore, treasure to think in this supply, growing corn prices across the country will be into the downlink channel.
In contrast, soybean meal price in the future for a period of time will continue to improve. Bullish market factors not only focus on the beautiful bean, this time the domestic supply and demand in the face of soybean meal price has played a good supporting role. Soybean oil, soybean meal imports to reduce inventory is low, did not perform the contract amount increased, both in soybean meal price in the short term will continue to go up. However, the early stage of the oil sales in October 9 - basis is overmuch, overdraft October market demand, for soybean meal of long-term trend prediction: flower lame shoes, we walk while look!
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